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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016
200 PM MST MON NOV 14 2016

Tina is barely holding on to tropical cyclone status due to a curved
band of deep convection that has redeveloped in the northeastern
quadrant.  However, the convection is gradually becoming fragmented
and the exposed low-level circulation continues to separate from the
convection due to Tina moving westward motion beneath southwesterly
upper-level winds of at least 40 kt. A drier and more stable air
mass, along with the aforementioned strong vertical wind shear
conditions, should result in Tina degenerating into a remnant low
pressure system during the next 12 hours and dissipating on
Wednesday.

Light easterly wind flow on the south side of low-/mid-level ridge
located to the north of Tina is expected to keep the shallow cyclone
moving slowly westward for the next 36-48 hours until dissipation
occurs. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 18.9N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 19.0N 109.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/1800Z 19.1N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z 19.1N 111.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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