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TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
200 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

A combination of cold sea surface temperatures and 35 kt of
southwesterly shear has reduced Seymour to an almost convection-less
swirl of clouds.  The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based
on a blend of satellite intensity estimates, and this could be
generous.  Rapid weakening should continue, and Seymour is forecast
to become a remnant low in 24 hours or less, and dissipate
completely between 48-72 hours.

The initial motion is 345/10.  Seymour is forecast to turn northward
during the next several hours, and then northeastward tonight
or on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough located well
offshore of the west coast of the United States.  The new track
forecast is a little to the left and a little faster than the
previous track, and it remains near the center of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 21.2N 123.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 22.6N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 24.0N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z 25.0N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 26.4N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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