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TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Shear and cool waters continue to take a toll on Paine.  The cloud
pattern is rapidly losing organization, the the diminishing deep
convection is displaced well northeast of the estimated low-level
center position.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt
based on the degraded satellite presentation, and this lies between
the latest Dvorak CI and T-numbers from SAB.  Rapid weakening is
expected to continue due to more than 20 kt of shear and SSTs
cooling below 22C along the forecast track.  Paine should weaken to
a depression by tonight and become a remnant low by 24 hours, before
it reaches the Baja California peninsula.  The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours, in agreement with the
latest global model solutions.

A 0844 UTC AMSR-2 pass from GCOM-W1 was very helpful in locating the
center of Paine, which was a little to the west of previous
estimates.  Based on extrapolation from this fix, the initial motion
estimate is due north at 12 kt.  Paine should gradually turn north-
northeastward in the next 24 hours as it moves around the
northwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern
United States, and the increasingly shallow cyclone will lose some
forward speed prior to dissipation.  The new NHC track forecast is a
little to the left of the previous one due to the initial position,
and is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 26.1N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 27.7N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 29.2N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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