ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Paine continues to quickly strengthen this evening. The convective banding has improved, with a mid-level eye feature now apparent in recent microwave images. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS have climbed to T3.8 or about 60 kt, which is the basis for the 60-kt advisory intensity. Paine is expected to remain in a low shear environment through tomorrow morning, while it remains over SSTs greater than 26C. This should allow for some additional strengthening and Paine is forecast to become a hurricane overnight or early Monday. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear, which should cause rapid weakening. Paine is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipate shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is below the SHIPS/LGEM statistical guidance, and is closest to the HWRF model. The initial motion estimate is 315/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move north-northwestward, then northward around the southwestern and western portions of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. As Paine weakens and become a more shallow system, it should slow down and then dissipate just west of the Baja California peninsula in 3 to 4 days. Some of the dynamical models take a stronger system northeastward into Mexico, but given the hostile atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions west of the Baja peninsula, this solution seems unlikely at this time. Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States in a couple of days. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 19.5N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 20.9N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 23.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 25.0N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 26.6N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 28.9N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:45 UTC