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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

...NEWTON STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from
Puerto Cortes to north of Santa Fe on the west coast of Baja
California Sur and from north of La Paz to San Evaristo on the east
coast.  A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of San Evaristo
to Loreto on the east coast of Baja California Sur.  A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued on the west coast of Baja California
Sur from north of Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos and on the east
coast from north of San Evaristo to Mulege.  A Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for the east coast of the Baja Peninsula from north
of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista.

For mainland Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino and a Tropical
Storm Watch from north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes
* north of Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
* north of San Evaristo to Mulege
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Bahia Kino

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro
* north of San Evaristo to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* north of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mazatlan to south of Bahia Tempehuaya
* north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.0 West. Newton is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn
toward the northwest is likely by later today.  A turn toward the
north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday and
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday
morning, and move over portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is likely, and Newton is
forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center, primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  For the Baja California peninsula, hurricane conditions are
expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area early
Tuesday morning.  Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area later on Tuesday.

For the Mexican mainland, tropical storm conditions are occurring
from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today.  Farther northward,
tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico
beginning Tuesday morning, and these conditions will gradually
spread northward throughout the day. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch areas in Sinaloa early
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch in
Sonora by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Newton is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as much of the state of
Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
through Tuesday night.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.  Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are expected across
potions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico from late
Wednesday into Thursday, with localized amounts of up to 3 inches
possible.  These rains could result in flash flooding.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, and begin to subside
on Wednesday.  Swells should increase across the southern and
central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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