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HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

The cloud pattern of Newton has not changed much since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 65
kt, with the strongest winds likely found east of the center over
the Gulf of California.  Little change in intensity is forecast
before Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico early Wednesday.
Rapid weakening is expected after that time, but Newton could still
reach southeastern Arizona as a tropical storm on Wednesday.
Newton's surface circulation is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 350/15.  Newton is positioned between
a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States and
a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States.
Newton should move northward and then north-northeastward under the
influence of these steering features through dissipation.  The new
NHC Track forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to
the multi-model consensus.

Newton is a large tropical cyclone with hazards extending well away
from the center, and these hazards will affect portions of
northwestern Mexico and southeastern Arizona during the next day or
so.  Moisture associated with the remnants of Newton are likely to
cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona
and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 27.3N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 29.8N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/0000Z 32.7N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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