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HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Newton has continued to quickly strengthen this evening, with a
ragged eye occasionally becoming apparent in infrared satellite
pictures.  The eye was confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass and the earlier aircraft data.  The Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft reported a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 87 kt
around 2300 UTC, which supported the 75 kt intensity on the
intermediate public advisory.  Given the increase in organization
since that time, the initial wind speed has been increased to 80 kt
for this advisory.  Newton is forecast to remain in a very low shear
environment and over warm water during the next 12 hours, which
should lead to continued intensification before the center reaches
the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday
morning.  Weakening is expected while system moves over the
the Baja California peninsula, but given the fast forward speed,
Newton could remain at or near hurricane strength until final
landfall in mainland Mexico in about 36 hours.

Newton is moving northwestward or 325/14 kt.  The hurricane will be
moving around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern
United States.  This should cause a north-northwestward to
northward motion that will bring the hurricane into northwestern
Mexico in about 36 hours.  The track guidance is very tightly
packed, and the NHC track is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF
models.

The wind radii were expanded outward based on data from the earlier
aircraft mission.  The updated track and intensity forecast
required the government of Mexico to issue new warnings and watches
for Baja California and mainland Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.3N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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