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HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen.
A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more
symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds
of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this
time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton
is in an environment of light shear and very warm water.  The
official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus
in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility.
Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since
landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points.
Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction
with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given
the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong
tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora.

Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14.  Newton
should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48
hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the
southern United States.  The biggest change in the latest model
cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of
the previous guidance.  This makes sense because, with a stronger
Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would
steer the deeper storm in that direction.  The new NHC track
prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period.

Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and
northwestern Mexico.   In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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