ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 Lester continues to strengthen. Visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show a symmetric, thick, inner core ring consisting of cloud tops of -70 to -75C and an impressive fanning outflow pattern. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity to 115 kt, making Lester a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A low vertical shear environment should persist during the next several days, and the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain around 26C as the cyclone moves along the climatolgically oriented eastern Pacific SST gradient. Statistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the hurricane may have already peaked, but there still could be some intensity fluctuations during the next 12 hours. Afterward, the cyclone should gradually weaken, most likely caused by an increasingly marginal thermodynamic environment and a decreasing oceanic heat content. The intensity forecast is nudged a little higher due to the current intensification trend, and is close to the intensity multi-model consensus. Lester's initial motion estimate is a steadfast 270/12. A subtropical high anchored to the north of Lester should influence a generally westward course during the next 3 days. Through the remaining forecast period, the cyclone is expected to gradually turn west-northwestward in response to some binary interaction with Madeline situated to the southwest of Lester. The official forecast is based on this scenario and sides with the TVCN consensus model and is basically an update of the previous package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 18.0N 130.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 18.0N 132.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 18.1N 134.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 18.0N 137.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 18.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 19.6N 148.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 21.2N 153.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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