ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016 The coverage of deep convection has been decreasing during the last several hours, and only a small amount remains to the northwest of the estimated center of Kay. A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed maximum winds near 30 kt, and based on that data Kay has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The depression is currently moving over SSTs near 25-deg-C and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next couple of days. These cool SSTs combined with the continued influence of dry and stable air should cause Kay to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 hours. All of the global models show the remnant low dissipating in a little more than 2 days, and the official track forecast follows that guidance. The center of Kay has been challenging to locate in geostationary satellite images, but the ASCAT data and a recent WindSat overpass indicate that the system has been moving nearly due westward during the past 12 to 24 hours. A continued westward motion in the low-level trade wind flow is expected until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies on the southern edge of the guidance and is adjusted a little to the south of the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 22.0N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z 22.4N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z 22.4N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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