ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 800 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016 Most of the deep convection associated with Kay has dissipated, likely due to the continued entrainment of stable air and marginal SSTs. However, visible satellite images showed a well-defined low cloud circulation with tightly curved bands. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt following a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Kay is crossing the 25.5 deg C SST isotherm and will continue to move into a stable and increasingly dry air mass. These unfavorable factors should lead to weakening, and Kay is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours. Unless deep convection makes a comeback, however, this event may occur sooner than that. The motion remains about the same, or 270/7 kt. There is basically no change to the track forecast reasoning. Kay, or its remnant low, should continue to move on a generally westward heading to the south of a mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and not too different from the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 22.0N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 22.3N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 22.6N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 22.8N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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