ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 800 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016 Microwave data and first-light visible imagery indicate that the convection associated with Kay has become less organized, with the low-level center now lying near the southeast edge of the convective area. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based mainly on a blend of subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the observed decay of the cloud pattern. The microwave data show that Kay turned westward during the night with the initial motion now 280/6. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward until dissipation. The new forecast track, which lies near the model consensus, is shifted somewhat to the south of the previous track due to the current position and motion. Kay will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which should cause a continued gradual weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours or less, and for it to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36 hours. The forecast also follows the global models in showing the system weakening to a trough after 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.0N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.2N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 22.5N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 22.9N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 23.2N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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