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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Kay's cloud pattern has become better organized since its overnight
convective burst.  A small and quasi-circular central dense overcast
has formed, with the low-level center located nearly in the middle
of this convective mass.  An earlier SSMI/S pass also showed the
presence of a mid-level convective ring, indicative of an increase
in the system's organization.  A 1658 ASCAT pass indicated wind
speeds around 45 kt, and the initial intensity estimate is set to
this value.

Today's intensification episode has likely ended.  However, with the
cyclone still over relatively waters and in a reasonably moist and
light-shear environment, Kay should maintain its strength for the
next 12 hours or so.  By 24 hours, the storm should reach
significantly cooler waters, and encounter considerably less
conducive atmospheric thermodynamic conditions.  Weakening should
commence by that time, with a rapid decay likely in 24 to 48 hours.
Remnant low status is still indicated in 2 days, with dissipation
likely in 3 days in agreement with global models.  The NHC intensity
forecast is largely the same as the previous one, except in the very
short term where it is a bit higher due to the cyclone's recent
intensification.

Kay continues moving slowly west-northwestward, with the latest
initial motion estimate of 300/07.  Kay is being steered on this
course by the flow around the southwestern edge of a mid-level
anticyclone extending westward from northern Mexico.  A turn toward
the west with some increase in forward speed is expected once the
cyclone becomes a shallow vortex to the south of a building
low-level ridge.  No significant changes have been made to the
forecast track this cycle, with the forecast track close to a blend
of the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 21.5N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 21.9N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 22.3N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 22.8N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 23.1N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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