ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016 Microwave data show that the low-level center continues to be located on the northern edge of a large area of deep convection indicating that shear is still affecting the cyclone. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed in this cycle and support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Although the shear is forecast to decrease, the cyclone will begin to encounter cooler waters and a more stable environment in about 24 to 36 hours. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity during the next day or so and a gradual weakening thereafter. Kay is expected to become a remnant low by 96 hours or perhaps sooner. Kay continues to be embedded within light steering currents, and is moving slowly toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 5 kt around the periphery of a weak mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward. This pattern should keep Kay moving on this general track for a couple of days. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should turn to the west steered by the low-level easterly flow. This forecast is very similar to the previous one and is basically on top of the multimodel consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.5N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.0N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.6N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.2N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 21.7N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 23.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 23.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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