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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
300 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Kay's cloud
pattern has continued to become better organized.  It appears
as though the northeasterly shear, which has been hampering
development, has diminished some.  Growth of the spiral bands with
colder cloud tops of -75C is the most evident, particularly, in the
western and southern portions of the circulation.  There has been
subsequent improvement of the inner core, indicative of a small,
irregular CDO feature.  The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt
based on a compromise of the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity
estimates and recent ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer overpasses.
Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours.  After
that time, the cyclone should gradually begin to weaken as it moves
into a more stable and drier airmass.  Kay is also expected to
traverse cooler oceanic temperatures and encounter increasing
easterly shear during the latter portions of the period. The
official forecast is again based on the IVCN consensus and shows Kay
decaying into a remnant low in 4 days.

The scatterometer overpass was quite accommodating today with the
initial position and motion. Deep convective bursts over the pass
few hours have apparently caused the circulation center to reform
about 40 nmi south of the previous advisory location.  Despite this
center relocation, Kay is still moving northwestward or 310/6 kt,
and should maintain this forward motion through the next 36 hours or
so. Afterward, Kay is expected to turn west-northwestward within the
easterly trades on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge. Th NHC forecast is consequently shifted to the left of the
previous advisory and sides with the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 18.8N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 20.0N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.5N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 22.4N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z 22.9N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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