ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 900 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 The tropical depression has changed little in organization since this afternoon. The center, which has been very difficult to locate in conventional satellite pictures, appears to be located near the northeastern edge of a pulsating area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are all below tropical storm strength, so the system will remain a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The cyclone is currently being affected by moderate northeasterly shear, but the shear is predicted to subside during the next day or so while the system moves over warm water. This should allow for a gradual increase in winds during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to encounter less favorable thermodynamic conditions, which should initiate weakening. The updated NHC forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in 24 hours, but is otherwise unchanged from the previous forecast. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is still estimated to be 315/6 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward to north- northwestward around the western portion of a mid- to upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico during the next day or two. However, there is more uncertainty than normal since there is a large spread in the track guidance. The GFS keeps the depression moving generally north-northwestward while the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean show the system turning west-northwestward when it weakens in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track has been adjusted slightly westward and is now located between the GFS ensemble mean and the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 17.8N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 18.6N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.7N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 21.6N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 23.3N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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