ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016 300 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated with the low pressure system located 350 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula has become sufficiently well organized to classify this system as a tropical depression. Therefore, advisories are being initiated at this time. The depression should remain in a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment with relatively low vertical shear and over warm oceanic waters for the next 36-48 hours. Therefore, modest strengthening is forecast. Through the remainder of the period, the cyclone should be moving into a more stable and drier air mass. Subsequently, a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin in about 48 hours and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days or so. The official intensity forecast is based on the IVCN and sides with the trend implied by the GFS global and ensemble mean, the HWRF and the COAMPS-TC which all show the system dissipating in 5 days, or less. The initial motion is estimated to be 315/6 kt, within the southeasterly mid-level flow on the periphery of a subtropical ridge originating over northern Mexico. The depression should continue on a northwestward to north-northwestward motion through the 48 hour period. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually turn northward in response to a growing weakness in the ridge to the north, and then turn slowly back toward the northwest in response to the low-level tradewind flow as a shallow, remnant low. It's worth noting that the GFS shows the cyclone weakening much more quickly than the ECMWF, and meandering south of the southern tip the Baja California peninsula before dissipating over water. The NHC forecast sides with the multi-model TVCN, and is nudged a bit toward the left of it, near an average of the ECMWF and GFS global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.8N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.4N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.1N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 20.6N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 21.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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