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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (Text)


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz
southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eleven-E was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 105.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h).  A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
this motion is expected to continue through Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of the tropical cyclone should pass near or over
the southwest coast of Mexico later today, and approach the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the
Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the
southern part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches through Tuesday morning.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the southwest
coast of Mexico within the warning area by this afternoon.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula within the watch area by late Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

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