ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Howard's deep convection has now been gone long enough to designate the system as post-tropical, and this will be the last advisory. The wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the low-end estimate from ASCAT a few hours ago of 30 to 35 kt. The circulation of Howard should gradually spin down over the next few days due to cold water temperatures, increasing shear and entrainment of dry mid-level air. A strong surface high over the eastern Pacific should cause an enhanced gradient, leading to stronger winds on the northern side of Howard than normally would be expected. The official forecast reflects this solution, which is a bit higher than the previous forecast. Howard is moving 290/14, and should turn westward by tomorrow under the influence of the subtropical ridge. The post-tropical cyclone should turn west-southwestward in a couple of days due to the orientation of the ridge, and open up into a trough in 4 or 5 days while the system is near the Hawaiian Islands. Guidance remains in good agreement, and only a small southward track change was made in the new NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 21.3N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 04/0600Z 21.7N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 22.1N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 22.3N 143.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 22.3N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 22.0N 151.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 21.5N 156.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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