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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Howard is still displaying some convection this evening, but the
extent and organization of the convection is diminishing.
Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications are dropping and a
blend of the TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT values indicate the intensity
has dropped to around 40-45 kt.  45 kt is used as the
initial intensity, though this may be generous given Howard's
recent trends.

The initial position of Howard has significant uncertainty, as
there have been no microwave images available nor has the
last-light visible imagery been very illuminating.  The initial
motion is assessed as 13 kt toward the west-northwest, as the
system is primarily being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
northeast.  The track models are tightly clustered and suggest a
gradual turn toward the west at about the same forward speed during
the next few days.  The NHC track forecast is nearly the same as
that from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCN track
model consensus.

While the vertical shear should remain relatively low over Howard
during the next day and a half, the SSTs that Howard will traverse
should get quite cool and the atmosphere dry and stable.  At about
two days, the SSTs become lukewarm but the shear becomes
prohibitive for intensification.  Thus it is expected that Howard
will gradually weaken, and in about two days lose its deep
convection and become a post-tropical cyclone.  The NHC intensity
forecast is based upon the LGEM and SHIPS statistical/dynamical
methods, as the three dynamical hurricane models - HWRF, GFDL, and
COAMPS - all unrealistically re-intensify Howard between days three
and five.  This official forecast calls for slightly weaker
intensities than those indicated in the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 20.1N 131.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 20.9N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.7N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 22.3N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 22.6N 141.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  06/0000Z 23.0N 147.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 23.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 23.0N 157.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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