ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016 Convective cloud tops continue to warm near Georgette, and there are no longer any pixels -50C or colder in infrared satellite imagery. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are now between 30 kt and 55 kt, so the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt on this advisory. Georgette will be moving through a dry environment and over sea surface temperatures between 23-25C during the next couple of days, which should cause further weakening. If deep convection does not redevelop, then Georgette will likely become post-tropical in the next 12-24 hours. The global models then indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough by day 3. Center fixes indicate that Georgette is moving again, and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt. A low- to mid-level trough extending north of Georgette toward the California coast appears to have been influencing the cyclone's recent motion. This feature is expected to run out ahead of Georgette during the next day or two, and a re-establishment of the subtropical ridge should cause the cyclone to turn west- northwestward and accelerate through 48 hours. The NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.8N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.4N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z 21.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 21.6N 135.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:24 UTC