ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 800 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 The cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and microwave data show that the low-level center is becoming even more separated from the residual thunderstorm activity. However, the circulation is still vigorous, and subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and objective numbers from CIMSS support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Given that Frank's entire circulation is moving over waters with temperatures of less than 24C, the thunderstorm activity should diminish resulting in gradual weakening. Frank is anticipated to become a remnant low by Thursday. The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 kt, steered by the deep-layer flow around the subtropical high. This motion will likely continue for a day until Frank becomes a shallow system and moves westward within t he trade winds. There is good agreement in the track models, and the NHC forecast is in the middle the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.4N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 23.9N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 24.3N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 24.4N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 24.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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