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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Estelle has been devoid of deep convection since 0000 UTC. The
circulation, however, is still vigorous. Based on continuity and a
recent ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone, the initial intensity has been
adjusted to 35 kt. Since the cyclone is moving over increasingly
cooler waters, additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle will
likely degenerate into a remnant low today, and probably will
dissipate during the weekend. I would not be surprised if the system
generates sporadic bursts of thunderstorms during the next day or
so.

Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 14
kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this general track
steered by the flow around the subtropical ridge until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 21.5N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.3N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/0600Z 23.2N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 25.5N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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