ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 The amount of convection has continued to decrease and is now concentrated within a small area near the low-level center. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed much, and a recent ASCAT pass over the cyclone shows a few vectors of 50 kt. These winds are confined to the northern semicircle and not far from the center. Initial intensity was then set at 50 kt. Estelle is forecast to weaken gradually as it moves over cooler waters during the next few days, and most likely the cyclone becomes post-tropical in about 36 hours or sooner. Dissipation is expected in 4 or 5 days. Estelle is being steered west-northwest at about 13 kt by a strong subtropical ridge, and it is expected to turn northwestward in a couple of days when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. There have been no significant changes to the guidance, and the new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and remains near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 19.8N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.4N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.8N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0600Z 24.4N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z 27.5N 140.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 30.5N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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