ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Estelle has changed little in organization throughout the day. Satellite images show that the center of the storm is located beneath a central dense overcast, with some fragmented bands around that feature. The initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, which could be a little generous based on the latest Dvorak classifications. Estelle is now over cool 25 deg C waters, and it is headed for even cooler water during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening trend. Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours, or perhaps sooner, when it moves over SSTs around 22 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from this morning, and lies close to the intensity model consensus. Estelle is moving westward at about 11 kt, and is being steered by a strong subtropical ridge located over the central United States. The storm is expected to turn west-northwestward tonight and then northwestward in a couple of days when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. A continued northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates in 4 to 5 days. The new NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.4N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.9N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 20.7N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 21.7N 131.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 23.0N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1800Z 26.6N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 30.2N 142.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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