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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Visible satellite images show that the tropical depression still
lacks inner-core convection, but several curved bands are noted
over the southwestern and northern portions of the large
circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers were 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB,
and a recent ASCAT overpass revealed peak winds of 25 to 30 kt.
These data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt for this
advisory.  The forecast track of the depression keeps it over sea
surface temperatures above 28C for the next couple of days, and the
upper-level environment is also favorable for strengthening.
Intensification is predicted, but it may be gradual through tonight
due to the depression's large size and lack of an inner core.
Steady strengthening is likely on Saturday and Sunday, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane in about 48 hours, which is
in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance.  In 3 to 4 days, the
forecast track takes the tropical cyclone over waters that have been
cooled by the past couple of hurricanes.  This should result in a
leveling off of the intensity, followed by gradual weakening near
the end of the forecast period when the cyclone encounters even
cooler water.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. There has
been no change to the track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for nearly all of
the forecast period to the southwest of a strong mid- to upper-level
ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  The track
guidance remains in generally good agreement throughout the forecast
period.  The NHC track has been nudged northward, primarily
due to a small northward relocation of the center, but otherwise
the new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 14.8N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.3N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 15.7N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.1N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 16.5N 113.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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