ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show that Darby has developed a banding eye feature during the past six hours. Consequently, Dvorak subjective intensity CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining Darby at 65 kt for this advisory. Darby is currently moving over a slightly warmer ocean and is expected to remain over these marginally warm SSTs through the period. Accordingly, only gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Beyond the 48 hour period, however, gradually increasing west-southwesterly shear and a more stable thermodynamic environment could potentially hasten the weakening trend, similar to what the LGEM and the Decay SHIPS models are indicating. The NHC intensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model consensus, but remains above the Decay SHIPS and LGEM models beyond day 2. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt, as Darby is being steered westward by a narrow subtropical ridge to the north. There has been no change in the philosophy of the track forecast. A generally westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the period, with a brief turn slightly to the south of west around day 3. The official NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.0N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.4N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.9N 135.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.2N 138.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 20.1N 140.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 19.4N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 18.9N 149.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 19.4N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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