ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 300 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has developed sufficiently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of circulation. On this basis, the system is being declared a tropical depression, the fourth one in the past 10 days in the eastern North Pacific basin. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago that showed winds in the 25-30 kt range. The initial motion of the depression is uncertain since it is still in its formative stage, but the best estimate using microwave fixes is 315/8 kt. A turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Tuesday and persist through the remainder of the period as mid-level ridging becomes better established to the north of the cyclone. This track takes the system away from the coast of Mexico. The models are in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus aids. Strengthening seems likely during the next 2 to 3 days while the vertical shear is expected to be light to moderate, the atmosphere relatively moist, and the waters beneath the cyclone sufficiently warm. After that time, the cyclone is expected to move near the cold water wake left behind from Blas and Celia and then ultimately cross the 26 C isotherm in 4 to 5 days. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows the strength of the system leveling off in the 3 to 5 day time frame. This prediction is a little above the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.3N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.0N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 16.2N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.1N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 16.8N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 17.7N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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