ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Blas continues to decay. The intensity and coverage of the associated deep convection has been shrinking throughout the day, and the remaining cold cloud tops are mainly confined to the northwestern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak T-numbers are falling, and a blend of the latest classifications support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The storm is currently over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a dry air mass. These conditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The global models show the remnant low dissipating in about 4 days, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The weakening system is still moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A turn toward the west is predicted over the next day or so when Blas becomes an even shallower system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.8N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:05 UTC