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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016

Agatha continues to maintain a ragged-looking area of deep
convection near and south of the estimated center, but the system
lacks convective banding features.  The current intensity is kept at
40 kt, which is an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The environment of the tropical cyclone should become increasingly
unfavorable, with drier mid-tropospheric air and strengthening
southwesterly shear, so a weakening trend is expected to commence
within 12 to 24 hours.  Agatha is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low in 48 hours, and to dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The initial motion estimate, 290/11 kt, is nearly unchanged from
the previous advisory.  Over the next several days, a mid-level
ridge to the north of Agatha is forecast to weaken somewhat by the
global models.  This should cause a gradual deceleration, and as
the cyclone becomes weaker and shallower during the next few days,
it should turn toward the west.  The official track forecast is
very similar to the previous ones, and lies quite close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 17.3N 123.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.9N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 18.5N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 18.9N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 19.2N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 19.3N 134.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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