ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016 Recent SSM/I and AMSR-2 data indicate that the center of Tropical Depression Two-E has become centrally located in the convective overcast, and first-light visible imagery shows a large convective burst near the center. Satellite intensity estimates at 1200Z were 30 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on the increased organization since that time and a recent CIMSS ADT estimate of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Agatha, the first named storm of the 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion is 295/10. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer it generally west-northwestward for 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Late in the forecast period, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected as the remnants of Agatha come under the influence of a larger tropical weather system to the east. The new forecast track is shifted to the north of the previous track based on the initial position and motion. However, it lies to the south of the various consensus models. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12-24 hours while Agatha remains in a light/moderate shear environment over relatively warm sea surface temperatures. Beyond that time, a combination of strong southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a steady weakening. Agatha is expected to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, a remnant low by 72 hours, and dissipate completely by 120 hours. Agatha is the latest first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific since Ava of 1969. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 15.6N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.2N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.7N 124.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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