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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

This morning's satellite presentation reveals a rather poorly
organized, substantially tilted tropical cyclone with the associated
shapeless deep convective mass displaced to the northeast of the
center.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by
the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates.  Strong, persistent
southerly shear should induce a weakening trend as the system
approaches the coast.  Most of the global models indicate that the
system will become a remnant low and dissipate in 24 hours or so,
and the NHC forecast reflects this scenario.

With a disorganized cloud pattern, the initial position and motion
are highly uncertain, and are based mainly on continuity.  However,
the low to mid-level weak southwesterly flow produced by a shortwave
trough over southern Mexico should steer the vertically shallow
cyclone generally northeastward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through the forecast period.  The official forecast is based on a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF global and ensemble guidance and is
slightly to the right of the previous advisory.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 14.6N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 15.1N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 15.3N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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