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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016
300 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

Easterly vertical shear of around 20 kt continues to take a toll on
Otto, with the low-level center partly exposed to the east of the
convective canopy. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for
this advisory, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from
SAB.

The shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with
the cyclone encountering a progressively drier environment. As a
result, all of the global models show Otto dissipating in the next
2-3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little
lower, and is below most of the TC intensity guidance given the
global model trends. Remnant low status is shown in 4 days with
dissipation forecast at day 5, but I would not be surprised if
both of these occurred sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 260/16. A fast westward to west-
southwestward motion is expected for the next 24 to 36 hours, as
Otto is steered by an expansive mid-level ridge to the north. The
ridge will weaken after 48 hours, which should result in Otto (if it
still exists) turning west-northwestward and then northwestward
prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
south of the previous one, following the trend of much of the
guidance, but still lies north of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z  9.2N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z  8.7N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z  8.3N  97.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z  8.1N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z  8.4N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z  9.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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