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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016
300 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

The shear has increased over the cyclone and now the center is
located on the eastern edge of the weakening convection. However,
the circulation is still vigorous with cyclonically curved bands
over the western semicircle. Given that the cloud pattern has become
less organized, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt.

The intensity forecast is uncertain. Global models continue to
gradually damp out the cyclone while the statistical guidance keeps
the cyclone with little change in wind speed. Otto will remain
embedded within easterly shear and a dry environment, and since
the intensity consensus is now trending toward a weaker cyclone, the
NHC forecast calls for gradual weakening.

As anticipated, Otto is moving south of due west or 260 degrees at
about 14 kt. The cyclone continues to be south of a strong mid-level
ridge over Mexico, and this steering pattern will force Otto to
move on a general west-southwest to west track for the next 3 days.
After that time, Otto will be located on the southwestern edge of
the high, and it should then begin to turn to the northwest and
north with a decrease in forward speed.  The track models are in
good agreement with this solution, and the confidence in the track
forecast is high. The NHC forecast is just to the north of the
multimodel consensus and on the northern edge of the guidance
envelope. This is not a significant change from the previous NHC
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z  9.9N  89.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z  9.5N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z  9.0N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z  9.0N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z  9.0N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z  9.5N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 11.0N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 12.5N 108.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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