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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...MATTHEW MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 64.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Dominica.

The Government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Guadeloupe and Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
to 48 hours.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 64.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general
westward motion is expected with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Matthew is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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