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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

New convection has formed near and east of the center of Julia
during the past few hours, although the low-level center remains
partially exposed due to westerly vertical wind shear.  Subjective
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are 30 and 35 kt
respectively, while various objective estimates are 35-45 kt.  The
initial intensity is kept at 30 kt pending the arrival of an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but there is a possibility
that this is conservative.

After not moving much overnight, the center of Julia has jumped
eastward this morning.  The overall long-term motion is 095/7, but
the short-term motion is significantly faster than that.  The
forecast guidance is in good agreement that Julia should move little
after 12 hours, and the new track forecast is based on the premise
that the current forward speed will decrease by the 12 hours
point. The new forecast track has the same general idea as the
previous track, but the area where Julia will meander is now
forecast to be about 90 n mi farther east than in the previous
forecast.

Julia is forecast to experience very strong westerly to
northwesterly shear for the next four days or so, and this is
expected to cause a gradual weakening during this time.  The NHC
intensity forecast follows the previous one, as well as the GFS and
ECMWF models, in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant
low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours.  It should be
noted that the shear could decrease after 96 hours, and the UKMET
and Canadian models forecast re-intensification at that time.
However, at this time it appears unlikely that the cyclone will
survive long enough to take advantage of the possibly more
favorable environment.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 31.8N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 31.8N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 31.7N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 31.6N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 31.4N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 31.5N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z 32.0N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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