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TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

The low-level circulation has become a little bit elongated, and
due to southwesterly shear most of the convection has shifted to the
northeast of the center. A convective band is still wrapping around
the eastern portion of the cyclone. Based on surface observations,
WSR-88D Doppler velocity data, and satellite estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at 35 kt.  Since the cyclone is over water, some
slight intensification is possible during the next day or so before
the shear increases as forecast by global models. A gradual
weakening should then begin in about 36 hours.

Julia appears to be moving toward the east-northeast at about 4 kt.
The steering currents are forecast to collapse, and most of the
models keep a weakening cyclone meandering during the next few days.
The NHC track forecast follows such a trend and predicts a very slow
eastward drift during the next 48 hours. Little motion is
anticipated thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 32.1N  79.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 32.2N  79.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 32.2N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 32.1N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 32.0N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 32.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 32.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 32.0N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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