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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 68.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west and south of
Fire Island Inlet, west of Port Jefferson, and west of New Haven.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
Harbor
* New Haven to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 68.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
3 mph (6 km/h).  A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward
speed is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northwestward
motion on Monday.  A northeastward motion is expected to begin on
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander
slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Hermine should remain near hurricane strength through
Monday.  Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area on Monday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
Harbor...1 to 2 feet

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain mainly
offshore through Wednesday.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are
possible across far southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod
and the offshore islands.

SURF:  Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through Monday night.  These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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