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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...EARL STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS IT WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 90.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of Earl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located inland over northwestern Guatemala near latitude 17.6 North,
longitude 90.8 West.  Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A
turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Earl will continue move into
southeastern Mexico tonight, and move near the coast along the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and Earl is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue for the next few
hours in a small area near the center as it moves through portions
of northwestern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the
Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and
Veracruz through Friday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central
part of the Mexican state of Chiapas.  These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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