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TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1600 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  80.2W AT 02/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  80.2W AT 02/1600Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  78.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.3N  82.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N  85.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N  87.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N  94.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  80.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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