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TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016

Surface observations and shortwave infrared imagery suggest that
the center of Colin is just offshore of the coastline in the Big
Bend region of Florida, and the system should make landfall very
soon.  Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy
rainfall from the center of Colin, however, it is important to not
focus on the time or location of landfall, or on the exact
forecast track. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding
have been affecting much of Florida and these conditions should
spread northward and northeastward over the southeast United States.

The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, under the assumption that
wind speeds near this value are still being experienced at some
locations along the coast.  Global models indicate that Colin will
deepen when it moves over the Atlantic, probably due to baroclinic
energetics.  Although Colin is expected to lose tropical
characteristics within 24 hours, the models do not show it fully
embedded within a frontal zone, i.e. extratropical, until about 48
hours.  The official forecast goes with this scenario.

The initial motion estimate is 050/19.  Colin should accelerate
northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern
United States for the next day or two.  After that, the forward
speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a
couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic.

It should be noted that Colin will probably lose its status as a
tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.
In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 29.8N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 32.9N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 36.5N  71.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/1200Z 41.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  09/0000Z 45.0N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0000Z 49.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0000Z 54.0N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0000Z 56.0N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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