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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY
EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 27.8W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 27.8 West.  Alex is moving
toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is expected by Friday
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions
of the Azores Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected over the next day
or so, and Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on
Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over
portions of the Azores tonight.  Hurricane conditions are expected
to spread over the central Azores by early Friday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL:  Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of
Alex.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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