ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDRA ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
200 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

...SANDRA RAPIDLY LOSING PUNCH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 109.3W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa
should monitor the progress of Sandra.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sandra was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.3 West. Sandra is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next day or two.  On the forecast
track, the core of Sandra is expected to pass to the south of the
southern end of the Baja California peninsula Friday night or early
Saturday, and approach the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa on
Saturday. However, a small deviation to the left of the track could
bring stronger winds to the southern extreme of the Baja California
peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm
during the next 24 hours, and become a remnant low on Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
Saturday night and Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Sandra is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over the
Mexican states of Baja California Sur...Sinaloa...Sonora...
Chihuahua...and far western Durango through Saturday night. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN