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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
900 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

The depression is gradually becoming better organized.  The cloud
pattern consists of a small central dense overcast with fragmented
bands to the north and northeast of the center.  The latest Dvorak
classifications were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, and
ADT values of T2.3/33 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is 30 kt.

The cyclone lies on the south side of a mid-level high pressure
system, and is moving quickly westward at about 17 kt, likely
influenced to some degree by the Tehuantepec gap wind event.  The
ridge is expected to shift eastward during the next couple of days,
which should cause the system to slow down and turn
west-northwestward on Tuesday and northwestward on Wednesday.  After
that time, a northward and northeastward motion toward the coast of
Mexico is expected when the system moves in the flow between the
ridge and a large trough.  The track models remain in fair
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC official track forecast
is largely an update of the previous one.

Strengthening seems likely during the next few days while the
cyclone remains over very warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30
degrees C, and in an environment of less than 10 kt of shear.
The intensity models respond to these conducive conditions in
showing steady intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast lies
near the upper end of the guidance envelope given the expected
favorable conditions.  After about 3 days, southwesterly shear is
forecast to significantly increase and mid-level humidity values are
expected to fall.  These hostile conditions should cause a quick
rate of weakening when the cyclone approaches Mexico, although
there continues to be a significant uncertainty in the intensity
forecast around 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 10.9N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 11.4N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 12.0N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 12.8N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 13.8N 111.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 17.1N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 21.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 25.0N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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