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TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.2N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 105.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 
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