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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 105.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Patricia
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 105.1 West. Patricia
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by early Friday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast Friday afternoon. On the forecast track,
the core of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning
area Friday afternoon or evening.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  Patricia is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. While Patricia is expected to weaken some on Friday, it is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through
landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach the warning areas overnight or early
Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area late Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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