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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 105.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  900 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 165 KT WITH GUSTS TO 205 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 105.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 105.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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