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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  880 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 175 KT WITH GUSTS TO 215 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE  60SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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