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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  924 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 105.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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