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HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1800 UTC THU OCT 22 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 104.0W AT 22/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 104.0W AT 22/1800Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 104.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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